A swine flu pandemic could cost millions of lives and trillions of dollars
EVEN a "mild'" swine flu epidemic could lead to the deaths of 1.4 million lives and cost the global economy more than $US330 billion ($463 billion) in lost output.
The figures, based on economic modelling of an influenza pandemic, also reveal that the most serious "ultra" scenario would cost 142.2 million lives around the world and reduce growth by $US4.4 trillion.
The dire scenarios come as Australia's top influenza expert says swine flu is probably already in Australia. In related business news, the swine flu alert has sent shares in anti-infective drug developer Biota soaring. Chief economist at the Export Finance and Insurance Corporation, Roger Donnelly, said the 2006 paper, Global Macroeconomic Consequences of Pandemic Influenza, gave a good indication of how bad it could get if a pandemic did break out.
Monday, April 27, 2009
Government is right to end higher first home grant
The global economy is in the worst state since the Great Depression, the Australian economy is fast following, unemployment is rising and, of course, the Government is bidding for election in the next 18 months.
Those factors put Labor in the most precarious of positions. It needs to implement a policy framework that acts on two fronts -- to cushion the rising fallout but also to position Australia for the economic rebound.
It is this conundrum that should force the Government to scrap the bolstered first home owners grant that was part of the stimulus package designed in October last year.
However, the timing of the policy's exit from the national agenda is proving confusing.
At inception, the Government had warned that the increased grants were not permanent and would finish on June 30 -- a move that prompted a flood of first home buyers to hit the streets around Australia every Saturday morning to take advantage of the cash boost.
The global economy is in the worst state since the Great Depression, the Australian economy is fast following, unemployment is rising and, of course, the Government is bidding for election in the next 18 months.
Those factors put Labor in the most precarious of positions. It needs to implement a policy framework that acts on two fronts -- to cushion the rising fallout but also to position Australia for the economic rebound.
It is this conundrum that should force the Government to scrap the bolstered first home owners grant that was part of the stimulus package designed in October last year.
However, the timing of the policy's exit from the national agenda is proving confusing.
At inception, the Government had warned that the increased grants were not permanent and would finish on June 30 -- a move that prompted a flood of first home buyers to hit the streets around Australia every Saturday morning to take advantage of the cash boost.
Lenders face jail for giving loans that can't be paid
MORTGAGE brokers and lenders face jail or hefty fines if they place borrowers in unsuitable loans they cannot repay, and for the first time they will be forced to obtain a credit licence, under a planned government crackdown.
The changes are part of a credit industry overhaul that will establish a single national law to regulate mortgages, credit cards, pay-day lending and consumer credit products.
The proposed laws, which were largely welcomed by consumer groups, sparked immediate concern from the banks, which warned they would increase costs, slow down loan applications and make lenders overly cautious in issuing credit.
Corporate Law Minister Nick Sherry said yesterday tough measures on responsible lending were necessary to protect consumers and ensure they were not saddled with unmanageable debts. "The Rudd Labor Government intends to crack down on irresponsible lending, and we intend to weed out dodgy providers of credit finance and dodgy advisers from this industry," Senator Sherry said.
Due to start on November 1, the laws include fines of up to $220,000 for individuals and $1.1million for corporations and five-year jail terms for brokers and lenders who suggest products unsuitable for a consumer's needs and financial capacity.
MORTGAGE brokers and lenders face jail or hefty fines if they place borrowers in unsuitable loans they cannot repay, and for the first time they will be forced to obtain a credit licence, under a planned government crackdown.
The changes are part of a credit industry overhaul that will establish a single national law to regulate mortgages, credit cards, pay-day lending and consumer credit products.
The proposed laws, which were largely welcomed by consumer groups, sparked immediate concern from the banks, which warned they would increase costs, slow down loan applications and make lenders overly cautious in issuing credit.
Corporate Law Minister Nick Sherry said yesterday tough measures on responsible lending were necessary to protect consumers and ensure they were not saddled with unmanageable debts. "The Rudd Labor Government intends to crack down on irresponsible lending, and we intend to weed out dodgy providers of credit finance and dodgy advisers from this industry," Senator Sherry said.
Due to start on November 1, the laws include fines of up to $220,000 for individuals and $1.1million for corporations and five-year jail terms for brokers and lenders who suggest products unsuitable for a consumer's needs and financial capacity.
Cyprus and Australia top sorry lot of economies
Cyprus rarely makes the news. But it’s name is up in lights — and for just one really good reason. When the International Monetary Fund released its latest dire forecasts for the global economy last week, there was only one country in the developed world expected to enjoy growth through this year. And that country was Cyprus. The IMF reckons the island nation of about 850,000 people will grow 0.3 per cent this year and 2.1 per cent next year. Why, when every other country in the developed is going backwards, is this speck of a place growing? The Cyprus High Commission highlighted its financial links to the Middle East (it had grown into a financial centre since the fall of Lebanon in the 1970s), its strong tourism industry and the “balanced” way the place is run. “It has been sane,” one official said. “We don’t have exposure to those sub-prime mortgages.” But even in this economic oasis, growth of just 0.3 per cent is pretty poor. It is just that in comparison to the rest of the world, it’s startlingly good.
Cyprus rarely makes the news. But it’s name is up in lights — and for just one really good reason. When the International Monetary Fund released its latest dire forecasts for the global economy last week, there was only one country in the developed world expected to enjoy growth through this year. And that country was Cyprus. The IMF reckons the island nation of about 850,000 people will grow 0.3 per cent this year and 2.1 per cent next year. Why, when every other country in the developed is going backwards, is this speck of a place growing? The Cyprus High Commission highlighted its financial links to the Middle East (it had grown into a financial centre since the fall of Lebanon in the 1970s), its strong tourism industry and the “balanced” way the place is run. “It has been sane,” one official said. “We don’t have exposure to those sub-prime mortgages.” But even in this economic oasis, growth of just 0.3 per cent is pretty poor. It is just that in comparison to the rest of the world, it’s startlingly good.
Australia dragged into recession: Swan
Treasurer Wayne Swan has emerged from G20 finance ministers' talks in Washington with no doubt that he is facing the most difficult economic environment in 75 years in which to frame next month's budget.
Mr Swan will not reveal whether or not today's "sombre" G20 finance summit will affect Australia's unemployment or Budget deficit forecasts.
"There's no doubt there's a very sharp contraction to growth in Australia and we are certainly being dragged into recession by the global economy," he said.
"The Government has done everything humanly possible to cushion Australia from the impacts of this savage global recession."
Yet he says Australia is doing better than most developed nations.
"There wouldn't be a finance minister in that room who wouldn't swap places with Australia," he said.
A tight-lipped Mr Swan however would not be drawn on whether the outcome of today's meeting would alter his projections.
Treasurer Wayne Swan has emerged from G20 finance ministers' talks in Washington with no doubt that he is facing the most difficult economic environment in 75 years in which to frame next month's budget.
Mr Swan will not reveal whether or not today's "sombre" G20 finance summit will affect Australia's unemployment or Budget deficit forecasts.
"There's no doubt there's a very sharp contraction to growth in Australia and we are certainly being dragged into recession by the global economy," he said.
"The Government has done everything humanly possible to cushion Australia from the impacts of this savage global recession."
Yet he says Australia is doing better than most developed nations.
"There wouldn't be a finance minister in that room who wouldn't swap places with Australia," he said.
A tight-lipped Mr Swan however would not be drawn on whether the outcome of today's meeting would alter his projections.
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